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Diving into Q2 in the SIMI


Roadmap to deliver Ireland’s transport emissions reduction 2021 – 2030.

  • The Climate Action Plan is strongly focused on electrification of the car fleet.
  • The key targets include increasing the share of electric cars in total new car purchases to 100% by 2030
  • Increasing the number of passenger EVs on the road to 840,000 by 2030
  • No NCT Certificate will be issued for non-zero emission cars after 2045
  • By the middle of the 2020s, EVs will reach Total Cost of Ownership-parity with diesel and petrol engines.
  • This effectively means that when a consumer factors in both up-front cost and on-going running cost, it will be as cheap to have an EV as a petrol or diesel vehicle.
  • The total number of licensed vehicles in Ireland trebled from 922,484 in 1987 to 2.71 million in 2018.
  • Of this total in 2018, private cars accounted for 2.10 million.
  • Electric cars accounted for just 0.2% of the total, while petrol and diesel
    combined accounted for 98.2% of the total.
  • The Government target of electrification of the fleet is fanciful and appears totally incapable of being achieved. Our dependence on fossil fuels with 96.7% of our transport energy demand in 2017 served by fossil fuels. Scale-up required from the present share of new car purchases (circa 12% electric and hybrid) to 100% electric by 2030.

Figure 1 Sales figures for 2018/2019 Market share
The Electric Vehicle target, while very commendable, may be undermined by a variety of factors. These revolve around cost, availability, supporting infrastructure and choice.

  • While this is a sign of a vibrant economy, it intensifies our decarbonisation challenge, as transport accounted for 19.8% of Ireland’s greenhouse gases in 2017.
  • Furthermore, air pollution emitted from transportation contributes to poor local air quality, in the form of increased micro-particulates and nitrogen oxides, which reduces people’s quality of life and harms their health. These issues cannot be ignored and provide further impetus for addressing the challenge in this sector
  • Transport emissions were on a downward trend between 2005 and 2011 as a result of the economic recession but have since rebounded as the economy strengthened. This demonstrates the close correlation between transport emissions and economic activity.
  • Our carbon intensity in the sector, at 2.6 MtCO2eq./head, is well above the EU average with Ireland emitting 40% more CO2eq./head.
  • Consumer costs have fallen significantly. EV battery prices have fallen by 79% in the last 7 years, with 2030 forecasts predicting a further 67% fall by 2030.
  • This will mean cheaper consumer prices When the upfront cost and the ongoing running cost are looked at together, it will be as cheap to have an EV as to have a petrol/diesel vehicle.
  • While existing policy has banned the sale of new non-zero emissions small vehicles by 2030, the forecast envisages on average only a little over 25% of new vehicles sold will be EVs over the 12 intervening years. This needs to be pushed up closer to 40%
  • This will mean cheaper consumer prices When the upfront cost and the ongoing running cost are looked at together, it will be as cheap to have an EV as to have a petrol/diesel vehicle.
  • While existing policy has banned the sale of new non-zero emissions small vehicles by 2030, the forecast envisages on average only a little over 25% of new vehicles sold will be EVs over the 12 intervening years. This needs to be pushed up closer to 40%

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